The Pulse of Polish Real Estate:
New Creditworthiness Will Allow for Much Less
- In the second half of 2021, home purchases with a mortgage loan accounted for over 60% of the transaction volume. A similar percentage was constituted by the consumer demand for flats as compared to the investment demand.
- The increase in interest rates and changes in the rules in calculating creditworthiness recommended to banks by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) resulted in a decrease in creditworthiness by more than a half compared to 2021. Approximately two-thirds of this decrease is due to an increase in interest rates, and approximately one-third to a tightening of lending policy.
- We estimate that the number of loans granted in 2022 will drop to approx. 170 thousand. from over 250 thousand in 2021, and the value up to PLN 60 billion from over PLN 85 billion. This will be a significant reduction in the demand for flats, which will not be compensated by investment purchases. We estimate that the scale of the outflow of investment demand may now be even temporarily slightly stronger. Investment demand is more likely to be sustained in large cities, where we observe strong pressure to increase rental rates and interest from PRS funds.
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