• In 2022, the number of transactions on the undeveloped land real estate market (preliminary data from district statistics regarding notarial deeds registered in 2022) decreased significantly - by almost a half. The largest decrease in transactions concerned land for residential development. At the same time, the average price per square meter of land intended for residential development increased significantly: in cities by a total of 19% y/y, and in areas outside cities by 12% y/y.
  • In 1h23, high prices of land for development in the largest cities continued. According to Cenatorium, the highest prices were in Warsaw - PLN 749 per square meter, Gdańsk - PLN 674 and Kraków - PLN 596.
  • According to monitoring by redNet Consulting, in 1h23 the price of land per m2 of PUM in the 6 largest cities, after a year of slower growth, began to accelerate again - the share of the value of land in the cost of housing construction increased by several percentage points and ranged from 14% to 24%.
  • The number of permits for building apartments has been decreasing significantly for the last 5 quarters. Data from September this year. may herald a change - the number of permits for individual investors decreased (-7% y/y vs -8% y/y in August), while in the case of developers it increased (+9% y/y vs -11% y/y in August). This trend suggests strengthening demand for land for development.
  • In the horizon of 1-2 years, the most probable seems to be an upward trend in the prices of land for residential development, which is supported by their limited supply and the simultaneous increase in demand stimulated by the prospect of lower NBP interest rates, improved credit availability and stabilization of prices of construction materials.
  • In the case of undeveloped agricultural properties, demand will probably decrease in 2023, which may limit price dynamics. Large declines in the prices of agricultural raw materials in 2023 will negatively affect the profitability of agricultural production. The continuing uncertainty related to the war in Ukraine and the poor mood in agriculture will limit investment activity. Reductions in interest rates will probably result in only a slight increase in interest in loans for land purchases - interest charges will remain relatively high. Within the private land market, it is possible that the number of concluded contracts may slow down.

Link to the entire report in Polish:

Puls Nieruchomości: Na horyzoncie wzmocnienie tendencji wzrostowych cen gruntów | Centrum Analiz PKO BP